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Manufacturing & Urban Development

It's estimated that approximately 60% of Africa's population is expected to live in urban areas by 2050. The urbanization of Africa is a growing trend and one that has been ongoing since the 1960s. For food subsidy programs to work there needs to be a way to include these urban centers.

Urbanization of Africa

Percentage of Population in Urban Areas, 1960 to 2050

20406080Urban Population (% of total population)19601970198019902000
20102020203020402050
Source: UN Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects

More often than not the policy makers behind these decisions need to draft policies that are seen favorably by the people who live in them. In order to ensure continued development and investment into these food programs urbanized areas need to be included in these conversations.

For a lot of Africans living in urban areas the issues they deal with are different from those in rural areas. In rural areas 47% of households lived in extreme poverty while only 7% of urban one did. Food is generally more affordable in urban areas and is often not the main priority for people who live in these areas.

Share Of Population In Extreme Poverty

Africa, 2018-2024

RuralUrban
4674574774674674674570102030405060↑ Share of Population (%)2018201920202021202220232024
Source: Statista, Extreme poverty headcount ratio in Africa 2018-2024, by area of residence, Saifaddin Galal

Obesity is a growing problem in African countries while its not as severe in other regions like the Americas its still an issue. Malnutrition still remains a problem even in urban households for most of Africa. Issues like stunting still remain even as households have more access to calorically dense food. What's often neglected are fruits and vegetables in many cases even though issues like extreme poverty have ended food is still unaffordable.

There are often many underlying issues as to why this is the case. Often, refrigeration is not as widely available. Infrastructure for the transporation of goods to the storage of it in warehouses or grocery stores do not have the adequate means of keeping certain kinds of fruits and vegetables stocked simply because they may go bad during transportation or have significantly reduced shelf lifes.

While many staple foods such as sweet potatoes or carrots have long shelf lives many others don't necessarily have the same amount. Often the conditions for these fruits and vegetables can prevent them from being stocked at many places and for others making it unaffordable for many households. These are commonly known as food deserts.

Staple Foods

CropEnvironmentTemperatureHumidityStorage Life
Cassava (fresh) Cool and Humid32-36°F85%-90%2-3 days
Cassava (dried) Cool and Humid32-36°F85%-90%5-6 months
BeetsCool and Humid32-36°F95-98%4-10 months
PotatoesHumid45°F95%2-9 months
CarrotsCool and Humid32-36°F95-98%5-6 months
RadishesCool and Humid32-36°F95-98%3-4 weeks
Sweet PotatoesWarm and Humid50-60°F90-95%6-9 months

Vegetables

CropEnvironmentTemperatureHumidityStorage Life
AsparagusCool and Humid32-36°F95-98%2-3 weeks
BroccoliCool and Humid32-36°F95-98%2-3 weeks
CabbageCool and Humid32-36°F95-98%1-6 months
Lettuce and Other GreensCool and Humid32-36°F95-98%1-2 weeks
Onions (Bulbs)Cool and Dry32-40°F65%6-9 months

Fruits

CropEnvironmentTemperatureHumidityStorage Life
EggplantsWarm and Humid50-54°F90-95%1-2 weeks
PeppersHumid45°F95%2-3 weeks
Squash (Summer)Humid45°F95%1-2 weeks
TomatoesWarm and Humid50-60°F90-95%2-14 days
WatermelonWarm and Humid50-60°F90-95%2-3 weeks
Source: South Dakota State, Storage Life of Vegetables, Rhoda Burrows

Often the existence of food deserts can increase the rate of overweight and obese individuals. It has become especially problematic in children. Where in urban areas overweight and obesity rates were more than double those found in rural areas according to WHO criteria. Approximately 22.6% of school aged children were overweight or obese with only 8.4% in rural areas.

Overweight And Obese Children, Africa

Primary School Learners, Children Ages 5-11

ObeseOverweight
0246810121416182022↑ Population (%)RuralUrban
Source: Prevalence of overweight and obesity among African primary school learners: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Something as simple as canned foods could greatly increase the available of healthy and nutritious meals in households. This can be especially important as refrigeration and electricity are often inaccessible to rural areas where infrastructure is expensive and unaffordable. Canned fruits and vegetables could greatly increase the lifespan of these ingredients and make them affordable and available to households.

In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa manufacturing is even more important due to the lack of refrigeration in most rural areas. By the year 2050 its estimated that 1.2 billion Africans will be without any form of electricity. On the same note 920 million Africans lack access to clean cooking. That also could double to 1.8 billion people.

People without Basic Needs, Africa

Total Number of People without Electricity or Clean Cooking

20202050
Clean CookingElectricity500M1.0B1.5B2.0B↑ Population2020205020202050
Source: Green energy in Africa presents significant investment opportunities. Mckinsey & Company

Manufacturing is not only a core step in increasing food security for African households. But also in the practice of cleaner cooking practices. It might not be unreasonable to take this a step further and distribute these goods as premade meals to households. From soups to packaged meals. In many areas access to safe drinking water is limited these same systems could be used to distribute these goods.

This would also significantly save the amount of time rural households would spend on a variety of issues. Approximately 4 in 5 African households spend an average of 5 hours per day oncooking related tasks. If the time the average African spent was reduced from 5 hours a day on cooking to 1 hour it would free up the schedule for many African household keepers to spend on more economically productive tasks. This could possibly allow for an increased role of women in society for places such as businesses. Allowing for increased economic mobility of households.

Time Spent on Cooking Related Tasks

Limited Access to Clean CookingAccess to Clean Cooking
012345678↑ Hours SpentAccess to Clean CookingLimited Access to Clean Cooking
Source: A Vision for Clean Cooking Access for All, IEA

Along with this the additional procurement of fruits and vegetables allows a government to better allow for the management of fields and soil. As fields cannot consistently output the same crops and maintain the health of the soil. Crop rotations are important to maintain and preserve top soil. This could allow farmers to reduce deforestation especially in vulnerable areas like the Congo Rainforest while also allowing for a consistent and reliable source of income for farmers. Giving them the ability to participate economically and not just subsist.

This would allow for governments to better manage food security as another issue that is often overlooked is when farmers choose to farm more profitable crops over less profitable ones. Crop rotations can be ignored for more profitable practices in the short term even at the harm of future crop yields. As the majority of small scale farmers do not have advanced degrees they often have limited knowledge on these issues. On the same note It could also potentially allow for farmers to be paid for the usage of cover crops when needed to preserve yield quality.

Crop rotations also have varying different types and kinds depending on the crop and climate. For example in a tropical climate crops can grow year round. Meaning that instead of a yearly basis for crop rotations it is instead a continual process. This however does not necessarily mean that complex crop rotations are happening if they are happening at all. An example would be a one year rotation or 2 crop rotation for example Corn and Soybeans that overtime will result in long term issues such as topsoil erosion, reduced yields, and weeds.

Every year up to 40 percent of crops are lost due to plant pests and diseases. Crop Rotations are important to prevent the worst case scenarios for farmers in which they loss a significant portion or a majority of their harvest. For example in a 1 year crop rotation if pests or disease impact 1 type of crop up to 50% of the crops are impacted. Multi-year crop rotations allow for better management of pests and disease while offsetting loses for farmers. However, these can get complex quickly and access to seeds often leave large barriers to entry.

Crop Rotations and Losses of Main Crop

No Loss10% Loss30% Loss50% Loss100% LossMono2 Crop3 Crop4 Crop5 CropCornSoybeanWheatAlfalfaOatsNote: For illustrative purposes. Actual crop rotations may vary

A study from the University of Minnesota found that crop rotations could increase yields for small scale farmers by as much as 41% for corn yields. This however doesn't necessarily mean that it results in large yield increases but in many cases can increase yields where soil otherwise may be improperly managed.

Average Corn Yields with Crop Rotations

TypeWeed ControlNutrients2 Year Rotation4 Year RotationPercent Change
OrganicTillage onlyManure113 bushels per acre142 bushels per acre25%
Zero-inputTillage onlyNone55 bushels per acre77 bushels per acre41%
High-inputTillage + broadcast herbicideBroadcast fertilizer151 bushels per acre146 bushels per acre0%*
Low-inputTillage + banded herbicideBanded fertilizer123 bushels per acre139 bushels per acre13%
Source: Agronomic Performance of Cropping Systems with Contrasting Crop Rotations and External Inputs, ASA
Note: * Not statistically significant.

Something as simple as government subsidies could incentivize farmers to make changes towards these practices. However, more often than not there are issues due to lack of transportation and existing infrastructure that results in spoilage of many of these crops during transportation are the reason why this isn't possible.

Government planning could allow for the to urbanization of areas and create new cities. It could potentially lay the groundwork for future industries as well. For companies areas where there are already skilled individuals and already developed infrastructure make for ideal locations to start businesses. As these programs scale up they would likely provide tens of millions of jobs throughout Africa alone.

This could help control the urban sprawl in many countries and allow for controlled city planning and development of manufacturing and distribution networks to support them. As heatwaves increase the need for city planning is becoming increasingly more important manufacturing could open the door for increased development and infrastructure for rural areas. Which currently is not happening nor is it expected to.

There are many ways that governments can work towards improving the lives of both rural and urban areas. Allowing for the future development of Africa in the decades to come while also allowing for the upward mobility of those that exist today. The issues that Africa faces today are ones that need to be dealt with simultaneously. But more often than not for governments there isn't enough funding to allow for this.