Climate Change & Beyond

Climate change will likely cause damage to crops. Regular crop failures have a high likelihood of causing real damage. A simple way of stopping preventable losses would be for governments to use their bargaining power in order to procure items such as drought-resistant crops or even tools & training such as low-cost alternatives to tractors to help farmers with productivity along with providing additional education for land management. This could increase the number of jobs and allow for specialization.

Climate Change could make Public Food Distribution Programs like those found in South Asia a necessity. Being self-sufficient is an issue for many countries and climate change will only make it worse. Budgeting can be an issue that many countries face especially lower income and developing ones that need to juggle various different issues not just a single one.

What and where money is being spent is important. For many countries wages have been stagnant for decades. It's a trend which could change, wages might increase but with the arrival of climate change, many people could also fall back into extreme poverty.

While in some areas we saw increases in wages in others countries median income was stagnant or decreased. It may be impossible to predict the future but by 2030 the global average temperature is expected to increase by 1.5°C. It's important to start to think about what this could mean. Changes now towards Food Subsidy Programs could be the foundation for prevention against the worst impacts of climate change and transitioning away from subsistence farming.

Climate Change notably does not have that significant effect on global crop production. However, that isn't the case in developing economies especially those in Africa. Our World In Data showed that in Kenya the crop production was reduced by 12.5% for maize, in theory the achievable yield could be twice or even three times what exists, but existing farming practices don't allow for this.

By as soon as the year 2050 the average temperature could rise up to 2.5°C it might not seem like much but it could be the reason for a larger conflict. The Institute for Economics and Peace estimates in worst case scenario up to 1.2 billion people will at risk of being displaced by 2050. Of that according to the World Bank 216 million will be internally displaced due to Climate Change.

There isn't much data available yet on the subject and averages tend to be misleading. The studies themselves are often specific to wealthier developed regions and there are few studies in the regions most impacted by climate change. Some studies suggest that under the current climate scenario the yields could be reduced by as much as 10-30% by 2050.

There's a lot of naunce lost especially considering how different the climate can be in parts of Africa. However the main point is to show that the attainable yields for countries is still significantly higher than the potential loses. But this is only in specific cases when extreme climate events do not occur. Which given what climate change is doing will likely increase in frequency over the years.

Climate change will make extreme weather events more common. In parts of Africa this can differ between drought, flash flooding, and extreme heat. Countries can do a lot to prevent the loss of lives due to these disasters but things like crops can still be destroyed due to these disasters. Having a stable supply of crops is a necessity to prepare for these events to prevent famine and food shortages.

It's important to note that while food affordability is only one issue that many countries could face. It is one of the most important as crop failures will force climate refugees from their homes into other places. For the majority of these climate refugees they will be internally displaced in their home countries. This is especially problematic given the slow and unequal growth of crop yields in places such as Sub-Saharan Africa where the population is expected to grow to 2.1 billion.

Data released by the UN FAO showcases the stagnant growth of agricultural development in countries. Southern Africa was an exception and its mainly because of South Africa. The other countries in the region did not experience any growth over the three decades. This is a similar trend seen in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

So why is this happening? Subsistence farming continues to be the dominant form of farming in most nations. For the most part investments in rural development and agriculture were put aside by most countries that has largely been neglected since the 2010s by most nations.

Under the Marputo Declartation members of the African Union pledged to allocate 10% of the budget every year towards agricultural and rural development. But for a majority of countries that never happened.

In the year 2022, only one country had allocated at least 10% of their national spending towards agriculture and rural development. While only 14 Sub-Saharan African countries had at least 5% of their national budget allocated towards Agriculture.

So what have countries been spending their budgets on? One area that stands out is education. 35 countries had education budgets of more than 10% with over 20 countries were spending more than three times their annual budgets for agriculture on education.

However, where and how these funds were allocated often excluded rural regions. With ISS African Futures stating that public schools in rural areas, have poor infrastructure, are underfunded and understaffed. With children from wealthier families benefitting as much as 12 times more than counterparts. Rural Development has largely been sidelined in favor of Africa's growing urban population. But this is problematic due to climate chang and Africa's rising population.

For many countries increasing agriculture expenditures still isn't an immediate priority. But what could happen if yield growth rates remain stagnant in parts of Africa? Let's look at an example where yields for grains do not change and that the total number of hectacres farmed by farmers remains largely unchanged.

While its unlikely for some countries like Ethopia and South Africa to see a decrease in productivity for other african countries it can show us what the future could look like if countries don't continue to invest in improvements to agriculture.

For African countries there is still a lot which they can do. But the cost involved are out of the budget of many African countries. Here are three staple crops within Africa and the yield gaps which exist today. While a lot of data is missing it shows us the progress that has yet to be made.

While these issues may not be solved by the end of the decade. Considerable progress can be made and investing more would push us towards equitable solutions. But by the time that these solutions will be needed the costs involved could be significantly higher than if countries made the investments now. That being said for many governments making these investments in favour of others may not be financially sound as they are often juggling with a variety of issues.